Michael – a few things.
This is an interesting analysis but I think you are underestimating the impact of the BTC “HODLers of last resort” as Trace Mayer says.
CSW definitely doesn’t have credibility as being around in the early days as a miner, he’s likely lying about that as well.
CSW is a plaguarizing, proven fraudster – and he does not work well with others.
Nobody will move to BCHSV if Bitcoin fails.
As Vitalik said, “if it comes out that CSW is Satoshi it wouldn’t change my opinion of Craig Wright, it would change my opinion of Satoshi”
It’s clear from this hard fork that BCHABC is much more centralized than they like to project.
Adam Back had a great little tweetstorm here re: Deadalnix’s latest decisions including the checkpoint and the 10 block reorg protection:
Also, you shouldn’t refer to bitcoin as “Bitcoin Core (BTC)”
Bitcoin Core is a group of developers. Branding Bitcoin as “Bitcoin Core” is a charlaranistic marketing move by Roger Ver to try to fool new users into thinking BCHABC/BAB/BCH is Bitcoin.
Also – the BCHSV<>BCHABC fork has some impact on the price of BTC but I would be careful of giving them too much credit – chartists were calling for this for months before CSW started flapping.
Anyone know if Craig is actually selling his BTC?
Craig likely has no Bitcoin – and whatever he does have, BTC HODLers will gladly buy him out.
If anyone is selling it’s Bitmain, Roger and Calvin Ayre.
Price was $6300 when Jihan said he would have to move hash and sell BTC to fight CSW.
Jihan said he didn’t want to do it but he would not back down from a war, and it would likely drop BTC below yearly support of $5000.
CSW said he has 1.05 million BTC and 1.1 million BCH… Referring to the Satoshi coins.
From that we can subtract the Satoshi coins and likey get his actual holdings.
0 BTC and 50,000 BCH
We know from Bitmain’s IPO paperwork that they have at least 1 million BCH and still around 90–100k BTC
Bitmain has 1 million BCHSV as well – and says he’s gonna dump.
There was a lot of volume buying up the BTC on the down move into the $4000s.
As more institutional buyers come into the space now that we are getting proper custodial solutions – Bakkt etc, multi-hundreds of billions of dollar funds are going to start allocating to bitcoin.
If the Satoshi coins move, I’m a buyer at any price, even if it’s $10 again.
I don’t think CSW is anything more than a temporary distraction, the same with Ver and the others with their altcoin forks.
Let them play in the sandbox with the other kids while the rest of us accumulate Bitcoin :)
